Wild card

Current socio-economic challenges in Europe (such as demographic pressures and growing unemployment) are creating the conditions for far-right parties to make major gains in the European political arena. Security fears associated with militant Islamism fuel distrust and suspicion about specific ethnic and religious minorities. These developments could eventually create the conditions for a major EU state electing a neo fascist leader.

Surprises ("wild" scenario features)

The existence of political parties with far-right agendas is not a new feature in European politics. What is really ‘wild’ or surprising in this event is the achievement of sufficient political momentum for a major EU state to elect a neo fascist leader, bringing these movements from the fringe to the centre of politics, and potentially fuelling other far-right parties in Europe and possibly globally. Extreme nationalist feelings could destabilise European political and economic co-operation, while racism and authoritarian practices could undermine fundamental European values and ideals such as the need for social cohesion and social inclusion.

It remains to be seen whether far right movements across Europe could co-operate on matters other than those involving common enemies. The result would be a climate of uncertainty and lack of consensus on the democratic constitution of European societies. An atmosphere of extremist philosophy, harsh policy and political intolerance could possibly lead to the differentiation between first, second and third class citizens.

Possible interpretations

There are different readings of such a wild card, for example: the failure of mainstream politicians to respond effectively to current challenges and to engage with shifting populations; the growing power of communicational platforms (e.g. social networks, Internet, tabloid press) making it possible for political narratives of far-right to prevail and gain momentum; the success of some far-right political parties in targeting and promising the ‘rule of the young’, the growing need for redistribution of resources, political and economic power, among others. Another possibility is the emergence of coalitions founded very much on the notion of threat from alien enemies – at present, Islamists are the prime candidates, but European neighbours could find themselves targets (e.g. consider the claims of some Greeks about German superiority and enmity).

Key actors

• Scanners or "early warners" such as social and political scientists like the Extreme Right Electorates and Party Success Research Group (EREPS) and investigative journalists;
• Shapers (i.e. enablers/inhibitors) such as the education system, mainstream political parties (potentially entering into coalition with the far right, and/or adopting similar policies and programmes), right wing populists, social movements, youth organisations, (trans)national civil society organisations (e.g. Human Rights Watch), and the media;
• Stakeholders positively or negatively impacted include such as national governments, civil society, NGOs promoting human rights and minority welfare, the police and law enforcement agencies, among others.

Potential impacts

The impacts of a major EU state electing a neo fascist leader could include: the rise in xenophobia and fears (and associated responses) on the part of minorities and affected groups such as women; the European Union turning inwards (i.e. reducing trade and cooperation with Asia and other regions, including North America); the rethinking of many human rights, including the right for political asylum, in Europe; the development of a “strong state” with punitive policies in social welfare, schools, the justice system, etc.; the intensification of discrimination and lack of tolerance nationally and regionally; the development of national oriented politics; the loss of credibility in the democratic system; the rise of new forms of resistance (including wars), for example.

Potential actions

A neo fascist government in Europe would probably lead to new legislation (criminalising some activities now legal, for example), intensive media campaigns proposing “new” welfare solutions, the rise of groups defending basic human values and, at the same time, an increased number of extremists on all sides promoting conflicts and social polarisation. For that reason, a number of early actions (pre-wild card) and early reactions (if the wild card occurs) should be considered:

• Policy actions

  Early actions: To make far-right movements more visible (e.g. including lessons from history in education); To reduce social polarisation in education; To enhance democratic participation and consensus building practices; To provide real and practical solutions to problems such as poverty and inequality; To promote community integration programmes;

  Early reactions: To avoid radical changes in legislation; To avoid drastic changes in police and law enforcement policies; To defend minorities law; To use soft power to negotiate with far-right regimes; To concentrate power within government alliances; To welcome the displaced and dispossessed.

• Business actions

  Early actions: To promote corporate social responsibility; To use business power to promote equality and human rights; To make sure equality and human rights are respected in the workplace; To research into integration models.

  Early reactions: To continue promoting the above and making sure that that racist/neo-fascist discourses do not dictate their practices; To continue trade with countries outside of EU.

• Research actions

  Early actions: To promote research on mass media, political discourse and electoral census analysis; To increase research on the current and future effects of migration; To research the roots of far-right wing support and, in contrast, or openness and tolerance and how they may be fostered; To review lessons of authoritarian personalities; To identify and analyse social mechanisms hampering democracy; To explore new ways of addressing inequalities and delivering social change;

  Early reactions: Continued research focus on the issues named above. Research community would need to continue presenting research findings that would promote understanding of immigration, inequalities, multiculturalism, tolerance and human rights.