The occurrence of a devastating environmental catastrophe in ...

as just happened in the Gulf of Mexico. If such a disaster happened on our shores, this would have dramatic impacts on European societies and economics. A catastrophe similar to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill would even be more d...

The collapse of a major nation in a geopolitical area that i ...

So Pakistan, Iran or Russia. Each of these major nations with large populations is already under huge pressure from internal dissent, terrorist groups, breakaway groups and financial pressure, etc. We can imagine dramatic possi...

Climate change, rapid changes, our current models

Low probability events often appear to be extremely likely, because they keep happening. So, for example, a large part of the Arctic ice breaks off and sea levels rise, maybe there is a drought and a severe heatwave that jeopar...