ERAWATCH Network Country correspondent and Co-author of ERAWATCH country reports in 2008 and 2009
Kimmo Viljamaa is a consultant at Advansis Ltd., a Finnish research and consulting company with expertise on innovationmanagement, innovation policy analysis and technology policy design. He holds a MSc in Regional Studies (2000) from the University of Tampere. He was a researcher at the University of Tampere (1998-2005), working on regional innovation policy and local economic development policy. Kimmo joined Advansis in 2006. During his career he has participated in several Finnish and international research and development projects in the field, local and regional development policies, local and regional development networks, national and regional innovation policy and programme evaluation. He has consulted in small and medium-sized city regions in Finland and several regions in countiries newly acceded to the EU in preparing and implementing their regional innovation strategies. He has also worked as a policy analyst in several EU research and innovation policy studies. Kimmo is ERAWATCH Network Country correspondent and Co-author of ERAWATCH country reports in 2008 and 2009.
Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years?
From the perspective of events that can impact on the European Research Area, so affecting European research policies, among the biggest unexpected events is the breaking up of EU research policies. This could be caused by a lack of strict common agreements on political issues.
Another possible wild card may affect research and innovation. At the moment a lot of production activities have moved to countries like China and India. If in the future this also includes the growth of research activities and education, then competition will be based not only on prices but also on quality of production. This will radically change the situation in EU. Such an event could be caused by the return to their home countries of large numbers of students and researchers who are presently in Europe and the US.
What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how it should be addressed by future research; in which field?
The first wild card is a political and economic issue. Currently the trend is for the growth of research activities in many countries. If for any reason the European Union broke up, research development would go into reverse.
For instance, currently the Bologna process is a European reform process aimed at creating the European Higher Education Area (EHEA), based on international cooperation and academic exchange, that is attractive to European students and staff as well as to students and staff from other parts of the world. The envisaged European Higher Education Area will:
• facilitate mobility of students, graduates and higher education staff;
• prepare students for their future careers and for life as active citizens in democratic societies, and support their personal
development;
• offer broad access to high-quality higher education, based on democratic principles and academic freedom.
If the EU breaks up, research will be divided and limited to national contests. The situation will become more difficult, especially for certain countries. Nordic countries, the UK and Ireland would collaborate more than the other parts of Europe with countres outside Europe. Bilateral collaboration and agreements will be established.
Southern and eastern Europe would be probably be excluded to some extent. Research collaboration will be less geographically founded. Finland could establish more collaboration with Asia and the Anglosaxon world.
Regarding the second wild card, and research capacity in China and India, it could happen that many Asian universities employ European staff. As a consequence, the US and EU might experience a serious crisis. It will be a brain game. Global talents have the ability to choose where they want to work and they will move depending on the attractiveness of different countries. Companies also like clear rules and political stability. So, for instance, China is more stable than Russia. Stability is more important than values.
From the point of view of environmental and democratic standards, tendencies for greening the economy and applying environmental rules, it is very difficult to reduce the level that people have been using. Some factors can help to keep already achieved strong environmental and democratic rules: research systems have been very different, like the US basic research and radical innovations. They need to convert breakthroughs into commercial products.
On the other hand, intellectual property rights (IPR) aimed at preventing the theft of technological achievements are not very effective in China. Higher research and capacity could mean more stealing of products by Asian countries. In some fields some countries have been more effective in using existing technology and creating the capability to improve production to set up strong competition. In the EU there are problems in new member states due to slow economic growth and the lack of capacity to renew their old systems. The public sector is not as competitive as the private. In Europe we have knowledge, capital and infrastructure. The EU should facilitate research and infrastructure innovation inside its borders, instead of importing it from China.
What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realisation) of the wild cards that you mentioned?
For the EU development, weak signals can probably be seen in the political climate from speeches and decisions following EU initiatives. There are more agreements, but no real participation in policies and initiatives, which are often different from common policies. There is a lack of political will on the part of participants to join activities, which are sometimes weak and not publicly announced. Only smallchanges in national policies take place.
In the domain of research, a signal would probably be R&D activities, which are moving to Indian universities. Weak signals could be the presence of fewer Asian students in top universities in EU, or some Chinese and Indian companies establishing offices and companies in EU and already having their own capabilities in education and research. The Chinese market up to now has been very small for EU products and services. A more probable trend is that the Chinese market will be opened up and there will be more competition and more stability. More capability would create more demand. At the moment China works like a market economy, but freedom of individuals is triggered.
You mentioned more than one wild card or weak signal, can you identify any causal relationships between them?
The economy explains much. Some EU countries are less competitive, and this probably causes crises in the public sector.
Local research systems would be less attractive and research in other continents will be more interesting. Maybe single countries, in a lack of solidarity, will be in competition with each other. Some countries like Germany may start thinking that they want to go ahead alone.
Looking ahead to the future of European research
– which of the Wi/We that you mentioned should be given top priority in EU research?
Stability of the EU is my top priority in many senses. More and more research is done on big issues, such as energy and environment. More research on the economy and politics and EU culture, as well as ageing, environment and social issues, should be developed. Interaction and collaboration between countries will be a top priority to achieve more general stability.
If movement of people, research and companies is good, you cannot avoid it. How far can the mobility effects be useful for the EU and make salaries rise? Of course, different kinds of people go to different kinds of places. In the labour market this will be balanced. But in research, people go to the North and West. The critical issue is how many of them are gaining expertise and then returning to their countries to establish companies and export? How many do not go back? Is it a two-way mobility or is only one way?
These are difficult issues. The implications can involve so many aspects.
FFRC - Finland Futures Research Centre (Finland) is a research and expert organization for futures research, education and development. It is an auxiliary unit of Turku School of Economics and Business Administration (TSEBA) having 3 offices in Turku, Tampere and Helsinki. The amount of FFRC staff is about 45-50 persons depending on current project cycles. There are 3 research professors in the FFRC. The FFRC produces visionary foresight information and knowledge on the futures trends and issues of society and the environment. The FFRC is the leading research institution of futures knowledge in Finland and Nordic countries and has also gained international recognition as a professional research institution. Our clients include businesses, corporations and public bodies. In Finland we work in regional and national projects together with different ministries, the Finnish National Fund for Research and Development (SITRA), the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes), VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and the Academy of Finland, the largest Finnish trade unions, municipalities, organizations and numerous businesses and corporations. The FFRC´s mission is to act as a leading regional, national and international R&D, training and consulting organization in the field of futures and foresight studies. International customers of the FFRC have been the European Commission, European Parliament, the European Foundation, Eurostat and many large corporations. The FFRC has been working for the Nordic Innovations Centre (NIC) in the project “Nordic Technology Options and Radial Innovations”, which final report “Foresight in the Nordic Innovations” was published in 2007. This project focuses on the dynamic development of Nordic innovations networks. In 2007 the FFRC was doing 47 R&D projects in various fields of foresights. Special services of the FFRC are Future Focus (educational and coaching services) and Radical Futures Forum (technology and corporate executive expert forum).
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