Jukka Paatero is currently working as Senior lecturer and research scientist at the Department of Energy Technology in Aalto University School of Science and Technology. He is holding a doctorate in Science (Technology), and his main expertise focuses on distributed energy systems, and particularly questions concerning integration of large-scale solar power, electricity, small wind or wind power production into distribution network. In this context, Dr Paatero has studied energy reserves and design of topologic power distribution network. Previously he has worked as a researcher and coordinator within several projects concerning energy economics and energy systems.

Which of the six ERA dimension you find important for the future research in Europe?

I consider the most important the development of ”Optimistic research institutions”. I’m not sure, whether this is also true at the EU level, but particularly in Finland this area is rather tenuous. Basically, the Academy of Finland [research funding agency] is the only institution that supports this area.

Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years?

Basically, I have two types of ideas on wild cards. The other is more closely connected to my own field of research, and the other is more, let’s say general type that I have come across otherwise1. Perhaps, one of the technological based changes could be that cold fusion proves to be an energy technology that is possible to apply easily. This could for instance be a laser based concept.

Another wild card concerning energy technologies could be a development of an easily farmed alga that could efficiently produce hydrogen. In other words, this would require a development of an alga that produces hydrogen through photosynthesis and thus decomposes water in its process. Obviously, there are plenty of other new potential energy sources, but these two appeals to me the most.

Anyway, then another type of wild card, which on the other hand, is also closely connected to energy, would be a radical change in urban traffic systems. This could appear in several different forms, from which one involves an innovation where electricity-based car traffic forms coupled trains. In other words, the break through of electric car also brings a new kind of innovation of city electric car that would enable coupled traffic instead of having undergrounds or trains. This type of structure would enable people to join the public transport with their own units. In a sense, the first unit could be a train or a wagon of some kind, but the rest following it are coupled (private) units. This would definitely change the nature of urban traffic radically.

(Laser based concept of) Cold fusion proves to be an easily applicable technology

Invention of easily farmed alga

Electricity based public transport system that is directly integrated with private electric vehicle traffic

What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how it should be addressed by future research; in which field?

Cold fusion as such would change energy production and its related impacts. Firstly, it involves entirely new types of environmental impacts. Combustion gasses, which are a huge problem itself, are removed from the production of electricity. So, prices of electricity would most likely fall radically. The nature of this type cold fusion e.g. laser-based cold fusion would exist in very small units. This means that we have a very small energy production unit, which is considerably better and easier to duplicate and redeploy than for example a fuel cell. Although it probably requires some sort of a thermal power devise, which naturally increases its size. However, it would still not be bigger than a shipping container, and still it would essentially be rather modular. In any case, this would shake our entire traffic of energy carriers, if we had this kind of good and easy resource for electricity, which would also be harmless and effortless to put to use. In addition, it includes further implications; if electricity was this easy to utilize, it would most likely strongly enhance utilization of electricity-based vehicles.

However, the algae-hydrogen card on the other hand, is seminal, since it would essentially improve the supply of hydrogen. Now, it is also possible that these high-temperature, fourth generation of nuclear reactors will enable cheap hydrogen production, but the algae one still is substantially different. Algae-hydrogen production would not produce much pollution, or at least it would be bio mass -type pollution, which again would be easy to utilize. The impacts would be many-faceted. For instance, it could change our farming culture, or perhaps water areas would develop into a sensible option to farm algae either in oceans or tanks. Thus this would lead a development of a new type of a crop, which would be particularly desired in sunnier regions. In other words, algae production could enable a new production structure for equatorial countries. For example, in oil production countries this could work as an alternative technology that could generate welfare and profit. In addition, easy accessibility of hydrogen would probably also contribute to technological break through of fuel cell. Surely, fuel cells have been examined already, but the ante has been too small due to the problem of not having enough hydrogen. So, if this problem was solved, in surprising and effective manner, most likely our infrastructure would change and combustion engine would most likely disappear completely.

Well, if we also have a look at the potential change of urban traffic structure it would most likely also involve changes in city structure and culture. The first impact would naturally be the necessary reformation of urban planning. Traffic planning needed to be changed entirely, and in addition, this form of traffic could increase communality to some extent. However, everybody would still have their own “box”, which they would use to join the traffic. In other words, the implications of such change involve certain social and city structure related changes. Very probably, this would be realized through a technology that is based on electric car, which again would significantly increase the intensity of electricity usage in the society.

And in which fields and how do you think these should be addressed in the future research?

Without a doubt the cold fusion or such technological advancement is such an innovation that it would be rather hard to prepare us for it. In other words, if we suddenly had a cheap source of electricity, the society would absorb it for all it is worth, which would have impacts on several different issues. I suppose the only way to be prepared for this kind of innovations is that we are willing to invest in the new innovative research of energy production, despite that they embody high risks.

As to the algae-hydrogen, of course the research related to this type of energy production already exists. So, the questions concerning hydrogen infrastructure, e.g. how we could develop a system based on hydrogen instead of carbon hydrides, have already been examined to some extent. However, now it is crucial to increase the intensity of the research. The hydrogen production could naturally appear in another way and of a different character in the future, but the possibility for it clearly exists. If it becomes available in innovative and cheap form, the rush to change the infrastructure suitable will be terrific. In this sense, the research of infrastructure ought to be channelled towards a new, more dynamic and flexible structural developments. Of course, it is possible to change gas station into a hydrogen station, but it is not as trivial as it sounds, since gas station already have a certain type of structure. The same goes for all kinds of distribution systems. In other words, we should now begin to prepare for that eventually we will run out of oil, and thus begin to plan the infrastructure in accordance with the up-coming transition, which will eventually in one form or another. Most certainly it will not occur in the basis of bio mass, since bio mass will not be sufficient enough. I mean, it will be insufficient, if we only purely cultivate some canary grass somewhere and manufacture gas out of it. This just simply won’t be an adequate solution. Instead of an efficient photosynthetic conversion into hydrogen with high efficiency, is basically possible particularly, if oceans are managed to put in use. In this way, we would also have enough area, as oceans aren’t currently utilized a lot for production.

In a way, as to the urban traffic card, I kind of aimed to answer this question. I’m currently participating in a research, where is built a dialogue between energy questions and urban planning. However, the fact is that this sort of research is not practiced very widely and the funding is not adequate. This research field is rather non-existent, but indeed it should be addressed much more carefully. This field of work involves traffic flows and social questions including the nature of communality. The current city structure is quite isolating, which seems to have effected negatively on the mental well-being of society. Either way, it would be very useful to examine new structures, e.g. how to create urban villages. However, the technological perspective here is that we need to recognize alternative ways to develop urban structures. The current urban traffic is most likely going to change or even removed from use completely. The core question here is that “how it will happen?”, and that should be examined considerably more.

What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realization) of the wild cards that you mentioned?

This may not be much of a weak signal, but it has begun to be clear that this oil based energy system is increasingly impossible to maintain. Price levels have already risen clearly, and they won’t come down to the level they were in the 1980s. Basically, there have been clear signals that within the limits of economic theories can be interpreted as signs that we are approaching situation where we are about clash with scarcity of resources, which is causing rise in costs. Basically, these signals prove that the transition will be inevitable. It is inevitable that energy based on hydrocarbon is going to be more and more expensive.

On the other hand, another issues relating to algae-hydrogen is that today there exists a clear relationship between food and energy. Through different forms of bioenergy we are able to see that energy is not independent commodity but it is related to the price of biomass i.e. food through different links. This is a focal question, since at the same time it also concerns well-being. The linkage has already appeared and it is recognizable, which is a signal that this area will go through severe changes and reforms due to its untenability. Otherwise, food prices will keep growing unreasonably high.

In addition to the urban traffic –issue, electric cars are coming and clearly visible phenomenon. Nonetheless, electric car is also enabling new kind of thinking. It is very flexible machine in many sense, and typically, it also benefits from smaller unite sizes. Basically, at the moment, we have two kinds of passenger mileage, and electric car makes the separation of the driving of long-distance and short-distance more reasonable. For instance, electric car functions well in cities, because if the performance per day stays under 100 kilometers, we will manage with electric car very well. On the other hand, if we want to go further, it will be tricky by electric car. However, it would be extremely clever, if people begun to buy electric cars, since they are rather inexpensive, convenient and small. Of course, this would require a system or mechanism for travelling long-distances as well, which would require a possession of a regular car. But is it necessary to own a car by oneself, if one only uses it rarely? There are already formats for joint ownership such as City Car Club, which are already supporting this kind of thinking, where ownership of a car is not necessity. If an electric car was easily available, it would be possible to use that for driving in cities and then use joint ownership cars for long-distance travels. There are signals for the transition that changes a little this mindset for cars. Actually, I think, the change has already begun. Another significant signal is that town planners have begun to ask that what will be the next urban structure that will last for the next hundred years forward. At the moment people are strongly looking for new solutions, which is a clear change. This type of research investment and enthusiasm for this theme did not exist about 10 to 20 years ago. It is a new type of research area, which is connected to the impracticality of the current urban structure. The current urban structure is a relic of an industrial society, thus it does not serve the current needs.

growing and permanent trend of increase in oil prices

increase of expenses within hydrocarbon based energy production and consumption

connection between food and energy (production)

revival of electric cars

increasing emphasis on separating long distance and short-haul traffic systems

integrated use services for cars (such as City Car Club)

enthusiasm and demand for developing new urban structures

Well, you have already mapped this question a little, but as you mentioned several wild cards and weak signal, could you identify more causal relationships between them?

Well, as typically as it appears to be in research field, different affairs have strong connections; one innovation usually opens possibilities to do something else on another sector. In addition to what I have already put together, I would like to add that urban planning is very strongly connected to traffic, which again is strongly connected to energy carriers and transportation of substances; in other words, to the question that do we have electric cars, hydrogen cars or both. As a matter of fact, in a sense all of these three themes are very close together. Their impacts are actually overlapping very strongly, although it is always possible that only one of them comes true and others are left aside. Naturally, connections are e.g. between the price fall caused by cold fusion and potential growth of electric car. Then of course a change could occur between energy prices and food prices, so food prices wouldn’t necessarily be connected to energy prices. On the other hand, it could also happen that energy becomes cheaper than food. On the other hand, I suppose, the new hydrogen source would definitely change traffic as well. Perhaps we might still use electric cars, but the power source wouldn’t be battery but fuel cell. Fuel cell also produces electricity, and thus it would still be an electric car, yet there would also occur a flameless combustion.

Looking ahead to the future of European research – which of the Wi/We that you mentioned should be given top priority in the EU research?

Well, I myself see very important the research of energy flows of cities, if this can be described this way, and particularly the future prospects in this context. This is connected to all of the wild cards and weak signals, and thus it is possible to see the end of the era of cheap oil. On the other hand, usage of oil also involves serious damage for environment, so, there exist several factors, which are supporting the idea of moving onto another type of energy source. In order to move forward, the society needs to be able – skills and knowledge – to accept “the something else”. Any research related to this dilemma is in my opinion focal and very important.

Do you prefer other definitions of wild card and weak signals? If these concepts are ambiguous in your opinion, how could they be more clarified and better defined?

I think, one of the biggest challenges of these concepts used here is that their interface is rather obscure; i.e. when are we speaking of [weak] signals and when wild cards. Where the signal ends and card begins, is a little obscure for me, as I see that there are actually several stages or degrees of wild cards and weak signals.

In research one important theme is always that the tools are proper, and terminology is one of the core parts of the tools. In other words, development of terminology would always – also in this case – be good to put even more effort. I myself examine distributed energy production that is also suffering from the same problem. Distributed energy production is a very multiform and obscurely defined. For instance, in 2001 was published an article that aimed to define this very extensively and right after this one came another one from different perspective, but still the question of clear-line definitions remains. Each time a student of mine aims to do a dissertation concerning distributed energy systems she or he needs to define the whole concept again. The concept itself is popularised, but the content is still complicated. This type of problems always restrains and hinders communication, understanding and also popularization.

What is your opinion on the concept of wild cards and weak signals? What methods/processes for their identification do you consider the most suitable?

I think the weak signals on their nature are not weak for everybody but they are only weak on societal level. In this type of framing, I consider the social media to be able to offer surprising tools and solution. Humans seem to have plenty of information, and single individuals do recognize all sorts of things from their environment. For instance, a weak signal could be recognized when neighbouring family buys a natural gas combustion apparatus for their car. This is a signal that relates to the transition of traffic. People seek for new solution, since the old ones aren’t satisfactory. The information people have is the type that it involves plenty of sensation, overlaps, and is awfully inhomogeneous. Still I consider it a resource that needs to be put in use as broadly as possible.

Future research, in my opinion, concentrates a lot on specialist and different experts, but many of the events are actually occurring in the field. In a sense, the opportunities social media create could perhaps be possible to apply to this course of research more widely. I think the problem is that the perspective is chained in scientific way of thinking, but innovations in society do not happen with the same scientific logic. Thus it should be aimed to extend the methods to a field that is closer to the mechanism where the innovations break through. If we think about for example digital camera; it was not a scientific relevance that everybody should now acquire one, because “it is scientifically necessary fact”. It was completely unessential but a transition related to people’s life style. It only was enabled, because people had the need to communicate visually, and thus had the interest of carrying a camera. In addition, it has also a lot to do with internet that camera was so important to people; it was possible to share digital media. I don’t think this type of visual culture would have spread so extensively, if we hadn’t had media as a tool to share it. People experience it gratifying, not only that they have a great picture but that they can also show it to their friends. I suppose, it is possible to identify structures that are accordance with social theories, but in the end the process itself is not scientific. It is just something that clicks with people. Besides the people’s response to different impulses are that much unpredictable that the signals will be recognizable in grass root level instead of some research. This format could be developed for instance within some media e.g. some kind of a feed in tool in Facebook.