Elina Hiltunen is specialized in foresight and weak signals. She is Master of Science in Technology and received her PhD in economics in summer 2010 from Aalto University of School of Economics. Her doctoral thesis concerned “”Weak signals in organizational futures learning”. Previously she has worked among others for Futures Research Centre and Nokia. Currently she is running her consulting company “What’s next consulting Ltd”.
Which of the six ERA dimension you find important on a scale 1-7 for the future research in Europe? (7 = extremely important, 1= not important at all)
very important(7) = Sharing knowledge (notably between research and industry AND Opening the world: international co-operation in science and technology
important(5) = Developing world-class research infrastructures
not very important(3) = Realising a single labour market for researchers AND Optimistic research programmes and priorities
not important(2) = Strengthening research institutions
Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years?
(WI) EU collapses
(WI) World War
(WI) Terrorist attack to EU capitals, such as Brussels
(WI) Rise of anti-science attitudes through e.g. religion
(WI) Invention of “Babel Fish”.
(WE) Invention of every day application of thought interfaces
Well, as you mentioned more than one WI and WE, could you describe any causal relationship between them or how a wild scenario could be born?
EU collapses: few new hotbeds for crisis emerge, and resistance against the EU grows from before or becomes evident that the EU funds are used for some undesired matters.
Or the Babel fish one: the Babel Fish refers to Douglas Adam’s (sci-fi author) notion of a universal translator that would be able to translate any language to another. In a sense, the Babel fish is already upon us, for instance the Google translator is this type of invention. However, when translating becomes flawless, the research will become more efficient!
What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how it should be addressed by future research? In which field?
The fields should be related to Social science, Political science, Foresight research and Consumer research.
What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realization) of the wild cards that you mentioned?
Well, there were several and global wild cards, but generally speaking, the growth of elements causing restlessness with different groups of people could indicate the future challenges of the EU.
Looking ahead to the future of European research – which of the Wi/ We that you mentioned should be given top priority in the EU research?
All in all, I suppose, first and foremost, it should be taken care that the EU is kept united, and then observe the weak signals, signs or obstacles indicating what are challenging its existence.
Do you prefer other definitions of wild card and weak signals? If these concepts are ambiguous in your opinion, how could they be more clarified and better defined?
First and foremost, we should be perceptive on the relationship between “what people (media, politicians, researchers etc.) are saying“, and “what is actually happening”. I have written about this in i.a. Futures and TSe publications, and e.g. an article in Journal of Futures Studies “Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change?” (http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/11-2/4wildcard-hiltunen.pdf), which concentrates on dividing changes into two categories: 1) wild cards and 2) gradual changes. The problem is that these [wild cards and weak signals] are often confusingly used as synonyms, and furthermore, they’re not referred equally and there are several different interpretations. Weak signals are also referred as “emerging issues” or “early warning signs”, yet I would look at them just as means of anticipating future wild cards, and classify them more through emerging issues/ weak signals –division.
What are the best methods to identify WI-WEs?
In academic literature is widely discussed the use of wild cards and weak signals for example in Mendonça & al. article in Futures (36: 201-218) or the book “Peripehrical vision” by Hines & al. (eds.). Also useful tools to identify wild cards and weak signals in Finland are “Trendwiki” and “Strategy signals”. Trendwiki is a tool, in which an entire organization collects weak signals by using the crowdsourcing –principle. Another good tool for this is horizon scanning, which in my opinion is an exemplary good method.
Would you like to add or tell something that e.g. you haven’t yet had a chance to share?
It is rather challenging to think or shoot wild cards and weak signals from the hip all at once. According to my thinking, weak signals and wild cards are noticed and forgotten quite fast, and thus they should be recorded immediately, when they appear. That’s why I once created the initial idea for the Trendwiki service with Data Rangers Ltd.
FFRC - Finland Futures Research Centre (Finland) is a research and expert organization for futures research, education and development. It is an auxiliary unit of Turku School of Economics and Business Administration (TSEBA) having 3 offices in Turku, Tampere and Helsinki. The amount of FFRC staff is about 45-50 persons depending on current project cycles. There are 3 research professors in the FFRC. The FFRC produces visionary foresight information and knowledge on the futures trends and issues of society and the environment. The FFRC is the leading research institution of futures knowledge in Finland and Nordic countries and has also gained international recognition as a professional research institution. Our clients include businesses, corporations and public bodies. In Finland we work in regional and national projects together with different ministries, the Finnish National Fund for Research and Development (SITRA), the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes), VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and the Academy of Finland, the largest Finnish trade unions, municipalities, organizations and numerous businesses and corporations. The FFRC´s mission is to act as a leading regional, national and international R&D, training and consulting organization in the field of futures and foresight studies. International customers of the FFRC have been the European Commission, European Parliament, the European Foundation, Eurostat and many large corporations. The FFRC has been working for the Nordic Innovations Centre (NIC) in the project “Nordic Technology Options and Radial Innovations”, which final report “Foresight in the Nordic Innovations” was published in 2007. This project focuses on the dynamic development of Nordic innovations networks. In 2007 the FFRC was doing 47 R&D projects in various fields of foresights. Special services of the FFRC are Future Focus (educational and coaching services) and Radical Futures Forum (technology and corporate executive expert forum).
DIE ZEIT (Germany), Financial Times (Germany), El Heraldo (Colombia), Prospective Foresight Network (France), Nationalencyklopedin (Sweden), EFP - European Foresight Platform (EC), EULAKS - European Union & Latin America Knowledge Society (EC), CfWI - Centre for Workforce Intellience (UK), INFU - Innovation Futures (EC), Towards A Future Internet (EC), dstl - Defence S&T Laboratory (UK), EFSA - European Food Safety Agency (EU), Malaysia Foresight Programme (Malaysia), Bulletins Electroniques more...