Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years? What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realisation) of the wild cards that you mentioned?
I see a possible future problem with data formats and standards in the area of ICT – the resulting wild card is that a loss of data may occur because nobody would be able to read it. I am currently trying to solve one such problem with particular software, it can be considered a weak signal. The greatest spontaneity in data formats took place in the 80's and 90's of the last century. The life cycle of software is currently on the rise but one still needs to make an active effort to store information – it cannot be just stored and never touched again, it needs to be continually and actively taken care of.
Another series of wild cards may result from the recent Island volcano eruption. Similar events may deepen problems, especially with air transport, which would cause airline crises, low transport capacities, and high prices of airfare. It would take a long time for ship transport to begin functioning satisfactorily as a replacement. A new expansion of train transport may also occur on the European continent at the same time.
An absence of fast and inexpensive global means of transport may cause the trend of localisation to prevail over globalisation. Paradoxically, this may lead to a significant worldwide growth of migration. People would want to relocate to places they like when unable to go there regularly, such as on vacation.
Another wild card is the potential immortality of the next generations which may come about as a result of improved healthcare and new discoveries in medicine and bioinformatics. However, immortality would bring the question of the sustainability of such state. A partial problem (weak signal) would be, for example, the changes in the area of copyright – works of immortal authors would never become public domain, old authors would not allow new authors on the scene, etc. Generally, it would be very difficult for young people to attain a position in any profession.
Which of the WI-WE should be given top priority in EU research?
I have, quite understandably, the closest ties to topics from my profession. A great ICT challenge and a wild card at the same time is the effort to involve as yet excluded groups in the digital community. People want to share their experiences with many other people, and they want to do it online. It can be difficult for older or handicapped persons but a suitable interface can help them in this regard. The aim is to, for example, allow people who can only communicate by moving their eyes, to converse over the Internet in real-time. Sociology also has to investigate changes in the society and what happens in case the society is divided into those who can communicate online, and those who cannot.
This is also closely tied to researching ways in which people use their computers and their ability to communicate with the computers. Natural communication with tools and machines is always oriented towards some particular activity (i.e. task oriented). However, computers are universal meta-tools that work differently. Current ways of controlling computers are oriented at processes (i.e. we know how computers work and we use them accordingly), not at specific tasks. This has to be changed.
What are the most pressing emerging issues/problems in the EU that are insufficiently (or not at all) addressed by current research?
I participated in the Czech iKnow workshop and one of the topics discussed was a wild card called the Thinking Cap, which is a machine intended for the monitoring and recording of thoughts. I personally do not think we should go this way. There is a great risk that such technology would be abused for surveillance and crowd control. The undeniable positive aspect, such as being a method for the disabled to communicate, is overshadowed by the possibility of a security threat. Nothing is free and we have to decide what is more important. This means there is an acute need to deal with ethical problems brought by technological progress.
Could you share with us other insights that you may have regarding long-term future research, taking into account the ERA vision and the Grand Challenges?
I only have one thing to say about the Grand Challenges concept: it must stay open for discussion and new ideas and challenges. Then it will be undoubtedly useful.
What is your opinion on the concept of wild cards and weak signals?
I like the fact that the employed concept of wild cards and weak signals gives a clear structure to the thinking about different issues – it is a very good method for people with technical background; I consider myself to be one of them. I think such method can help to solve the conflict between mid-term and long-term thinking which is now present in research. Today's research asks strictly for quick results, which unfortunately causes us to become a short-term oriented society without any long-term vision or direction.
