Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years? What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realisation) of the wild cards that you mentioned?
“Human made” or “nature made” security wild cards will certainly have some effect. In the area of energetics, these include, for example, intentional or unintentional black-outs. Relevant weak signals already include a shortage of qualified workers in the Czech Republic's power industry at the level of both technicians and university educated professionals who would be able to continue in the interrupted tradition of energetics from the period before the significant growth of market oriented liberalism and extreme environmentalism in the society. Other weak signals are the increasing economic competition of energy companies and the absence of a unified system to prevent crises of the energy transmission system control (central energy switchboard).
Another wild card in the area of energetics is the possible breakthrough in the use of new sources of energy (nuclear fusion, hydrogen fuel). Such breakthrough is impatiently awaited for a relatively long time already. The question remains, however, whether it will ever happen.
A major progress in healthcare can be considered quite likely, especially one related to the usage of nano-technologies and laser. For example, it is becoming evident that existing preventive measures are relatively inefficient, as is the chemical-pharmacological model for the treatment of malignant tumours. It is therefore necessary to achieve a breakthrough in the efficacy of radical surgical methods of treating tumours.
Wild cards from the area of ethics can play a major role in the history of Europe. These wild cards arise from the crisis of the system of values, especially in the new Eastern European member states of the EU, as well as other countries of the former Soviet block. The signals (which are better characterised as strong, rather than weak) include the current economic crisis and the lowbrow behaviour of powerful individuals in the society. The driver of this development is the significant shift of the liberalised system of values in Eastern Europe towards the only critical criterion, economic gain.
Also, there is evidence of “national pride” in a number of Eastern European countries on par with the 17th century. This pride is being combined with procedures copied from Western European management which are, however, internally incompatible with this state of the society. The result is tension between the individual Eastern European countries and at the same time between the European “east” and “west” which can have a significant impact, among other things, on the functioning of the ERA.
What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how should it be addressed by future research? Which of the WI-WEs you mentioned should be given top priority in EU research?
From the point of view of security wild cards (energy black-out), people will be confronted with new scenarios of daily lives, for which they will not be ready. Apart from research focused on the technical basis of the problem, an important role may be played by corresponding research activities in the area of sociology and psychology.
As far as the aforementioned crisis of the system of values is concerned, liberalisation and the development of “human well being” leads managerial decision-making processes to prefer immediate (financial) gain over long-term development of basic social values (tradition, continuity, long-term vision). Rapid development of technologies leads to a confrontation with Christian ethics, and traditional systems from south-eastern Asia (China) are gaining the upper hand because for them the most important things are not the human being and its well being but the goal and the means to achieve it. From a long-term point of view, the described development may result in a disintegration of the European system of values and an overall decline, including a degradation of the ERA.
As a consequence of this development, we can expect growing frustration of today's forty-year-olds within the next 20 years, especially in Eastern European countries. This frustration will influence their psychological and general health and will lead to a repeated decrease in their average age. That is a challenge for healthcare and sociology research.
Could you share with us other insights that you may have regarding long-term future research, taking into account the ERA vision and the Grand Challenges?
Half a billion people live in the EU, and they are already aware of the fact that other economical entities are significantly larger and better equipped with raw materials and energy. It is therefore necessary to build upon know-how and its quality. This means that the quality of education and research is of the utmost importance. With that in mind, not only particular content (the what) is important, but methods (the how) of education and research are important as well, with regard to the creation of a basic long-term system of values of the society.
From the long-term point of view, we need to formulate a certain over arching philosophical framework – a common umbrella of sorts for the ERA and the individual Grand Challenges – which would contain the basic values of European culture (while respecting original traditions of the individual nations). Ensuring harmony between technology-oriented education and research (especially basic research) and this bio-socio-ethical basis would enable us to face the European identity and ethics crisis and the related wild cards.
