Antonín Rašek is a major-general in reserve. He now works in scientific research, consulting, publishing, and literature. He is the author of several professional books, dozens of studies, and hundreds of articles concerning youth sociology, management, military, and politics. After graduating from the Military School of Jan Žižka and the 1st Infantry School of Combined Arms Units, he became a career soldier. Simultaneously he took correspondence classes, and graduated from the Faculty of Arts at the Charles University where his degree subjects were philosophy and history. He completed his dissertation in 1969, and his post-graduate studies were in sociology. Then he worked in sociology research at the Consulting Institute of the Czechoslovak National Committee for Scientific Organization and at the Research Institute for Manufacturing Technology and Economics. He was the civilian deputy minister of defence for social and humanitarian issues from January 1990 to September 1992 and the director of Institute of Strategic Studies (1993).
Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years? What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realisation) of the wild cards that you mentioned?
There could be a number of wild cards, especially in the area of security. I consider the following to be the most important:
- Black-out in the power industry – in case of tensions in Europe and the world; the Czech Republic could be affected, especially if it does not complete the remaining two blocks of the Temelín nuclear plant.
- Social unrest – in case of asocial policies and the fall of the social state.
- Serious attacks on information networks.
- Strong far-right neo-Nazi-like party.
- Strong far-left communist-like party.
- Chinese infiltration (in neighbouring countries, Africa, and the Latin America, followed by Greece; another possible scenario – gaining control of the Balkans, Czech Republic, and Central Europe; gaining control of Siberia).
- Local military conflicts with a global impact – Pakistani-Indian nuclear conflict; Israeli-Iranian conflict.
- Ethnic unrest – Romany (Romany militia); migrants (Islamic minority).
- NATO break-up.
- European Union break-up.
- Large scale oil accidents and disasters.
- Shortage of water – in case of continuing climatic problems.
- Extinction of bees – as a consequence of ecological imbalance; could have far reaching impacts on the pollination of plants and the entire ecosystem, including a food crisis and related social impacts.
- Fall of a large meteorite.
- Eruption of an underwater volcano with globally destructive consequences.
- Nuclear plant accident.
- Pandemic (arising in a moment when nobody believes in any real danger because of the bird flu, etc.).
- Pandemic of tumour diseases caused by the existence of strong transmitters that change the geostatic fields around tectonic boundaries to resonance fields.
All of these wild cards are supported by relatively strong signals and are thus becoming prognoses.
What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how should it be addressed by future research? Which of the WI-WEs you mentioned should be given top priority in EU research?
The most dramatic impacts have the attributes of social disasters, be it the consequences of a black-out, attack on information networks, social unrest (rise of undemocratic or totalitarian regimes), ecological disasters like water shortage or bee extinction (water wars, agricultural problems), or the Islamisation of Europe or its infiltration by China. We should prepare for all of these impacts both from the point of view of the respective specialisations (energetics, ICT, natural sciences, and ecology) and from the point of view of the umbrella social sciences. I consider energy security the top priority for European research.
Can you identify any causal relationships between the WI-WEs you mentioned? Are any of them particularly relevant to EU research and/or may dramatically affect the ERA vision?
We have developed some of the wild cards into scenarios in several publications with my colleagues.
For example, publication [1] is about the Islamisation of Europe wild card: Europe has decided, similarly to the United States, to grant the so-called blue cards allowing legal residency in the countries of the European Union... There was emphasis on integration, not assimilation. The integration presupposed the knowledge of language, employment, and housing... Migration could not stop the ageing of European population but could revitalise its genetic pool... The number of qualified people increased but they worked in positions requiring lower qualification, especially in construction and healthcare... Every year was marked by an increase in the number of foreigners in Europe, mainly of the Muslim religion... National identity, European integration, migration, and multiculturalism were topics not to be underestimated. Which is what happened because of strategically late reactions. France has become the first Islamised country in 2040, followed by other West European countries.
Publication [2] develops a scenario from the wild card describing a middle class revolt: European countries, USA, and Canada have been increasingly confronted with economic pressures from Chine, India, and other Asian countries... This increased the unemployment of qualified professionals, the “backbone” of the middle class... Developed countries saw a gradual widening of the gap between the very rich and the middle or lower income groups. This undermined society's social cohesion which led to the growth in the number of mass strikes and social unrest, with uncontrolled progression at first. There was an increase in crime rate in the society, and organised crime also partially grew in strength. Socially weakened security forces were not able and partially did not want to deal with the problem. Discontent of the middle class with the ruling political elite, which was more and more linked to the economical elite, has grown in most of the developed countries. The middle class started to utilise its strong weapons still more – education, professional knowledge, competence, and communication skills. It also started to organise politically, new political movements were created, unions went through a renaissance. The middle class gradually started to succeed in stripping the existing political and economical elites of power in many countries.
These and other scenarios can be mutually interconnected, and their significant potential impact on the ERA is obvious.
References:
[1] Balabán M., Rašek, A. (2008): Divoké karty v budoucím vývoji světové bezpečnosti (Wildcards in future development of the world security). Vojenské rozhledy, Vol. 2008, No. 2. ISSN: 1210-3292. http://www.army.cz/images/id_3878_4000/3538/vr2008_2.pdf
[2] Balabán, M., Rašek, A. (2007): Historie z roku 2020 (History from the year 2020). MF Dnes, 16. 6. 2007. http://www.ceses.cuni.cz/CESES-75-version1-070616_balaban_rasek_mfdnes.htm
