Manus Hayne, University of Lancaster, United Kingdom

Dr. M. Hayne is presently a Senior Lecturer in the Physics Department at Lancaster University. He studied at Southampton University (sponsored by the GEC Hirst Research Laboratory) and did a PhD and postdoc at Exeter University. He briefly worked in Paris at the CNRS lab L2M (which subsequently became LPN), and then at the Laboratory of Solid-State Physics and Magnetism of the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium for 10 years, where he investigated semiconductor nanostructures in very high magnetic fields (<50 T). He joined the Physics Department in Lancaster in June 2006. He has 60 papers in peer-reviewed journals and a total citation count of more than 600. He previously coordinated the FP5 EC NANOMAT project and was instrumental in founding the FP6 SANDiE Network of Excellence, for which he led the Work Package ‘Research Strategy’.

His research expertise is the (magneto-) optical and transport properties of low dimensional semiconductors and semiconductor nanostructures, which he has studied in a very wide range of material systems, for example GaSb/GaAs quantum dots, InAs/InP quantum wires and Si nanocrystals. Present research is focused on (i) antimonide-based quantum dots with applications in memories funded by EPSRC in the framework of the NanoSci-ERA QD2D project, a Brian Mercer Feasibility Award of the Royal Society and an EPSRC ICASE PhD studentship in cooperation with QinetiQ, (ii) GaInAsNSb quantum wells for 1550 nm telecommunications applications in cooperation with Oclaro, and (iii) cross-sectional scanning probe microscopy of semiconductor nanostructures and devices. He has a number of European industrial, institute and academic partners.

Summary
This interview was conducted by telephone and the main focus of the discussion was a number of potential Wild Cards and their associated Weak Signals.

 

Can you envisage any major wild cards (positive or negative that may occur in the next 20 years?

MH: As a technology dependent society, if a major magnetic solar storm was to hit the earth, there would be lasting damage to electric power grids and potentially the electricity supply of the world could be severely damaged.

I am sure you already have environmental disasters in your database, but another topical wild card would be a super volcanic eruption. Considering the whole of Yellowstone (US National Park) is basically a dormant volcano, can you imagine the chaos that would reign if this became active?

 

What would be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how should it be addressed by future research? In which field?

MH: If a major magnetic solar storm was to hit the earth, the effects could be catastrophic for technology. We are such a technology dependent society. It would cause billions, if not trillions, to repair, and there would no doubt be an effect on water supplies, perishable food, medicines and other necessities. Being forewarned is forearmed...hence further research and adequate procedures are required to hinder the storm or prepare for its arrival. Perhaps there are modifications to the power grids that could be researched to alleviate the impact of such an event.

With regard to a super volcanic eruption the affects are fairly obvious. There could, and probably would, be catastrophic impacts on society, ecology and the environment.

 

What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realisation) of the wild cards mentioned?

MH: A number of experts believe the sun is behaving strangely and this could be a warning that something unusual is in the offing. Particularly, strange are the sun spots (dark patches) as spotted by Galileo. They normally occur in an 11 year cycle, but they have been at a minimum recently as no sun spots have been observed for over 2 ½ years and this is baffling scientists and causing concern.

It has to be remembered that this has actually happened before albeit hundreds of years ago. This was in a period where society was much less dependent on technology however, so the impact would have been much less than what it would be today. There is nothing to suggest that this won’t occur again sometime though.

 

What other weak signals could be particularly relevant to future changes that may significantly or unexpectedly affect the key areas of ERA?

MH: There seems to be a general public misunderstanding of science. The way society perceives technological advances or other crises can dramatically influence their opinion and acceptance of such technologies. This has been evident for MMR, ClimateGate and the BSE crisis, and if you look at Genetic Modification, public perception has drastically affected the progress of research due to the way it has been understood, or misunderstood. In today’s climate, this is even more evident as there is open access for people to air their views through the internet increasing the scope for much more misinformed dissemination.

 

Do you have any comments regarding the usefulness of wild cards and weak signals and how these may be interconnected?

MH: Clearly there could be an infinite amount of wild cards and weak signals, so it is important to keep these as relevant as possible without hindering the creative stimulation.

When looking at the connections between wild cards and weak signals, it seems that you can start with a weak signal and try to extrapolate a wild card form it, or equally start with a wild card and attribute weak signals, but are they always related?

 

Do you prefer other definitions of wild cards and weak signals?

MH: I have no problem with a wild card being a high impact, low probability event; however I would not call them surprising. For example, a large meteor hitting the earth could be considered a wild card, but this is not really a surprising event. In fact, there probably aren’t too many truly surprising events nowadays.

 

What in your opinion are the best methods to identify WI-WEs?

MH: For scanning wild cards, you could consider public input by having an open forum with no boundaries, to stimulate thoughts but with quality control and checks.