Ian Henderson, Enterprise Europe Yorkshire, United Kingdom

Ian joined RTC North in February 2007 to lead FP7 support activities in the Yorkshire and Humberside region. Working with universities, business multipliers, individual companies and other organisations, his main responsibilities were to promote programme awareness and facilitate participation in collaborative R&D.

Prior to joining RTC North, Ian gained extensive project management experience in the role of Engineering Projects Manager with DuPont, and latterly Agfa-Gevaert, managing all aspects capital programme planning and implementation at their UK manufacturing site.

His research career started in the printing and publishing sector with Sericol Group (now FUJIFILM Sericol) in Broadstairs, Kent, where he was involved in the development of novel photo-sensitive coatings by modification of water soluble polymers.

Summary
This interview was initially conducted via an introductory questionnaire and a follow up telephone call. The interview focuses on general issues of importance for Europe with regard to environment, energy, demographics and politics. A number of broad Wild Cards were stimulated and associated Weak Signals attributed along with insights into pressing emerging trends for Europe and the affect on the ERA vision.

 

Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years and are particularly relevant to the EU research and/or may dramatically affect the ERA vision?

IH: There are a number of wild cards that may occur that could be relevant to ERA. Although a global issue, the unexpected consequences of climate change resulting from adverse effects on eco-systems would have large impacts across Europe. Other potential high impact events with low probability could be new discoveries in low cost sustainable energy generation; large scale changes to the European political structure and significant changes in the global economic powerbase and associated demographics.

 

What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how it should be addressed by future research?

IH: A lot of the effects and impacts of climate change are well documented, but there would definitely be influences on food chains, with specific issues regarding food security and adverse health effects.

If new breakthroughs in low cost sustainable energy were made, then there would need to be significant investment in implementation and uptake of new technology. There would certainly be a knock on effect and impact on oil companies and energy producers.

There is always scope for a political revolution when changes are made to a political structure. There could be a rapid decline in the power of Europe.

The demographic wild card is quite interesting; one dramatic impact could be mass migration...everybody moving to India or China where the jobs are!

 

What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realization) of the wild cards that you mentioned?

IH: There are new discoveries in the relationships between organisms, and for example, the bee population is massively in decline. One of the reasons for this could be the changes in climate which is significantly changing the ecological system and the natural habitat. However, that is if there is such a thing as climate change!

An ambition for the energy industry is to create low cost renewable energy sources. There is a lot of research ongoing to establish this, which is itself a weak signal that we are aspiring to create this holy grail of low cost sustainable energy.

There is already the spread of political unrest in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and this is escalating. Although not likely, this certainly has the potential to grow and cause changes in the European political structure.

Equally on demographics, there is strong economic growth from the East in China and India, and perhaps more stagnant in Europe and the United States.

 

What other weak signals could be particularly relevant to future changes that may significantly or unexpectedly affect the key aspects of ERA?

IH: The reduction in public spending across Europe is leading to a survival of the fittest economy, and could further lead to the abolishment of Euro. There are also new trends in the production of specific food crops around the globe.

 

If you mentioned more than one wild card or weak signal, can you identify any causal relationships between them?

IH: There is probably some correlation between climate change and sustainable energy sources. On the same hand, demographic issues and migration can certainly be linked with politics.

 

What are the most pressing emerging issues/problems in the EU that are insufficiently (or not at all) addressed by current research?

IH: Particularly in the UK, due to the change of government recently, there is the need for new models for government and local authorities that are more cost effective. This would be an exercise that would be valuable all over Europe.

 

Could you share with us other insights that you may have regarding long-run future research, taking into account the ERA vision and grand challenges?

IH: It may not exactly be insightful, but better integration of National and European initiatives would be desirable and beneficial! I think if you are considering ERA, it has to be one big compromise because everyone wants to get more out of it than they put in.