Mgr. Lenka Hebakova is the country correspondent for ERAWOTCH Network projects for the Czech Republic. Following her studies of social sciences and international relations at Charles University in Prague and the Sciences Po University in Paris she has worked as a project manager for the Operational Programme Human Resources Development at the Czech Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and passed an internship in Skelleftea, Sweden, on active employment policy and lifelong learning at that time. In 2005 Lenka joined the Technology Centre ASCR where she is currently responsible for analysis and EU Structural Funds projects in the area of human resources for research, development and innovation. In 2009 she has been temporarily based in the CZELO Office in Brussels.

Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years?

Following the debate during the iKnow workshop in March 2010, the major wild cards were identified and agreed by the experts within the ICT-SSH group as follows:

For ICT: Collapse of internet network connection structure, Complete loss of privacy, 3D media trustworthily copying reality, and P2P networks as a predominant technology for data management.

For SSH: Pay as you pollute, Climate of right wing politics, and Never too late to keep on keeping on.

Explanation of these wild cards is available in the relevant workshop report.

All the above listed wild cards generate a number of themes relevant to the EU research. Two more wild cards were identified as good subject for the European researchers: Nano-lab inside your body, and Ageing and healthcare through technology.

What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how it should be addressed by future research? Inwhich field?

EU shall support the nanotechnology and healthcare research issues, combining SSH with ICT, technical and medical research. Inter-sectoral and international research cooperation approach is needed.

Nano-lab more concrete research themes: Research of nanodiagnostic methods, Evidence based medicine, Non-invasive treatment, Research of application software for nanochip, Research of suitable options for policy and regulation.

Ageing research themes: Robotics and smart houses, Interface oriented technology, Social research (life models), Research on demoscopic impact.

What are the week signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realization) of the wild cards that you mentioned?

Weak signals associated to “Nano-lab in your body”:

• New research results of diseases diagnostics -> detection of ”week signals” in our body.
• There is a huge trend to develop more and more the nanotechnology.
• The diagnostics is developing and tries to identify illness as soon as possible.
• Higher spending on R&D as % of GDP.
• An artist has broadcast images of her gastroscopy.
• When webcams come up, “ordinary” people suddenly started to exhibit their private life publicly.
• Threat of terrorist attacks -> the atmosphere of fear in society.
• Initiatives & movement of NGOs against the trend of chipping people.
• Many ordinary things are becoming common, so people are easily excited about new “sexy” technologies {i.e. 3D movies).
• Terrorism of hacking; Emerge of new crypto/analysis methods.
• To heal a man at the start phase of illness is much cheaper than later.
• Governments are trying to push down the costs of healing.
• There are plenty of hackers in the world trying to hack any kind of DB.
• Telecommunication technologies are developing very fast.
• People do not care about their health.
• The hackers are very active and trying to hack anything.
• New lobbying initiatives of companies’ clusters pushing on governments.

Weak signals associated to “Ageing and healthcare through technology”:

• More of affordable technologies to help older people.
• Higher spending on R&D as % of GDP.
• Demographic pressure on public finance & cost of human caretakers.
• People are getting need to living individually and to being supported by ambient technology -> old age is a continuation.
• Smart home technology is available; research on “intelligent monitoring” is going on.
• Tax increases.
• Increase of social changes.
• Family structure change - no or single child families -> burden of caretaking is too much for one.
• Rise of “human hyenism” where older people are exploited by making of false promises or hopes.
• Old people remain active longer -> empowerment by technology.

Can you identify any causal relationships between mentioned wild cards and weak signals?

Reducing the labour cost shall lead to the wider use of robots for the elderly and better healthcare in the context of evidently ageing population in Europe. Diagnostics can be provided more and better only with the condition of enough spending in the relevant fields of research. Nanotechnology and biotechnology research shall bring results for the emerging issues of the European society.

Looking ahead to the future of European research – which of the WI-WEs, that you mentioned should be given top priority in the EU research?

• New research results of diseases diagnostics -> detection of ”week signals” in our body.
• Higher spending on R&D as % of GDP (in the CR especially).
• To heal a man at the start phase of illness is much cheaper than later.
• Governments are trying to push down the costs of healing.
• Old people remain active longer -> empowerment by technology.

What are the most pressing emerging issues/problems in the EU that are insufficiently (or not at all) addressed by current research?

Ageing, healthcare, societal changes, technology impact assessment, management of research, international and inter-sectoral cooperation to solve emerging problems, SSH role in explaining and analyzing the technological development impact.

Could you share with us other insights that you may have regarding long-run future research, taking into account the ERA vision and Grand Challenges?

Settlement of the vision and long-term research priorities is crucial for the improvement of ERA. Globalization, social change and inequity, economic crisis and poverty are issues generating a huge number of research areas to be tackled. Good news is that Grand Challenges have been identified not only generally, but also in detail for various actual research fields – such as sustainable development, intercultural interaction, global health or human wellbeing, defense etc. These documents have been discussed when preparing the research agenda of the new Commission as well as when preparing the themes of the FP8. Good news would also be, that FP8 is planned to be much more about inter-disciplinary, international projects involving public as well as private research sector. Mobility of students and researchers should also be strengthened within the FP8.

What other week signals could be particularly relevant to future changes that may significantly or unexpectedly affect the key aspects of ERA?

The ERAWATCH Country Report 2009 identifies group of signals (barriers) which may have significant influence on future involvement of the Czech Republic in ERA.

One of the important signals is the fact that the public support for R&D is fragmented in the Czech Republic and the expenditure on R&D is low. Another signal lies in the low number of researchers; the barrier is a failure of appropriate conditions for researchers, structure of disciplines at universities and small horizontal mobility of researchers and students. The low proportion of research in high technology intensive sectors is the third identified signal. Fourth signal is a small number of domestic companies engaged in R&D; current policies may not be sufficient to encourage enterprises which do not perform R&D to become involved in research. The last identified signal lies in weak linkages between academic research and business sector.

From the global point of view, the current R&D system is not very satisfactory in the Czech Republic. Concerning ERA related programmes and activities the participation of Czech teams on ERA initiatives is not very outstanding even though it has been increasing in the last years. Also to attract foreign researchers to participate on Czech research projects seems to be still a big challenge as well as to avoid the brain drain. However, generally we can claim that the ERA goals and challenges are reflected in all responding policy and strategic documents in the Czech Republic, such as new proposal of National R&D and Innovation Policy 2009 - 2014, National Reform Programme 2008 – 2010 or White Paper on R&D and Innovation (2008). Some aspects of the reform have already been settled. However, it is necessary to forge ahead in order to improve national R&D system suitably according to new trends and needs in the field of R&D in Europe.

What is your opinion on the concept of wild cards and weak signals?

Wild cards and weak signals are quite a good concept to identify the hot research and innovation topics that shall be solved in the near future. Foresight and analytical sociological methods can be used to elaborate it in depth. By product of such concept is the introduction of an international platform of different experts to discuss the research issues.