Q. What is the most important Wild Card, in your opinion?
The most important is of course “the ultimate wild card”: The coming of “technological singularity”. This may happen between 2009 – 2045.
(The “technological singularity” is a concept advocated by Ray Kurzweil and other futurists. It was introduced by the mathematician and Science Fiction writer Vernor Vinge. The basic idea is that due to the exponential growth the capabilities of information technologies lead to a “singularity”, when the power of these capabilities will be enormous and will outperform all aspects of human intelligence1).
Q. Are there weak signals that could be related to this "ultimate" wild card?
Sure. Several ongoing researches signal the approaching technological singularity. For example, the research at IBM Zurich on human brain simulations.
Q.And what is the grand challenge posed by this wild card?
The grand challenge of research is how to prepare the society for this drastic change. The big problem is that the society changes linearly, while the technology changes exponentially. People must be aware of the accelerating change and its implications.
Q. Any other wild cards of very high importance?
Yes, I can mention two: Global pandemic with mutating viruses, and melting of ice in both north and south poles as a result of a global climate change.
Q. What do you think are the implications on future research policy in Europe?
Frankly, I am quite disappointed by the current level of research in the EU. Unfortunately, Europe is lagging behind. A good example is research in genetically-modified organisms. The challenge of the EU is changing its research policy, and cancelling many restrictions on research that are too severe. For example, cloning research, which moves from Europe to Singapore. Europe is losing its vision of the future. The EU must understand that in a competitive global environment Europe must change its restrictive policies. If Europe will not make progress in research in certain areas, somebody else surely will.
Q. So what are the top priorities for research in Europe?
The technological singularity and its implications, medical nano-robots, climate change and solar outbursts (eruptions). The last one (solar outbursts) is a critical global-scale problem that requires much more research than is currently carried out. NASA is doing some research, but in Europe ESA is doing almost nothing. ESA could lead the research on how to deal with solar outbursts. Humanity may face a dangerous situation and solutions must be explored, including space colonies in the far future.
Q. What is your opinion on the Wi-We methodology?
The concept of Wild Cards is very useful. It helps to “open the mind”. The definition of Wild Card is clear and understood. The identification of wild cards depends very much on the area under consideration. The best method is a good brainstorming.
In contrast to wild cards, the definition of weak signal is not sufficiently clear. But in spite of this, it is at least partly useful. The best reference for identification of weak signals is the recent work of Elina Hiltunen (FFRC). An example of interesting recent weak signal is the use of Twitter by people in Iran who are opposing the regime. It could become an important tool to overthrow the government.
Q. Other comments?
There is a highly recommended book: George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Peripheral Vision: Detecting the Weak Signals That Will Make or Break Your Company”, Harvard Business School Press, 2006. And I would recommend interviewing the following persons:
a) John Petersen (the author of “Out of the Blue”, the well known book on wild cards)
b) Three very bright Israelis who attended the most recent course of the Singularity University in Stanford.
Supplement:
After the interview Mr. Cordeiro sent the following list of wild cards that he used in his lectures:
(a) A list based on original ideas by John Petersen, The Arlington Institute
Megavolcano erupts
Cumbre Vieha collapses, megatsunami wipes out dozens of cities
Asteroid or comet hits earth
Massive solar flare wipes out life on earth
Natural evolution of superbug
Extraordinary US West Coast Natural Disaster
First Unambiguous Contact with Extraterrestrial Life -- The Arrival of ETs
Ice caps melt, Oceans rise one hundred feet
Mass Migrations
Another Chernobyl
Collapse of the United Nations
Global nuclear war
Environmental pressure causes evolution of superbug
Aids or similarly deadly disease mutates and becomes transmittable by air
Bugs resistant to all known antibiotics
Rules Change: Economic and/or Environmental "War Criminals" Are Prosecuted
Terrorists Go Biological
US Economy Fails or collapse of the dollar
Civil nuclear war
Global economic collapse causes mass starvation and conflict
Global civil war
Space exploration creates superbug
Civil war between Soviet States Goes Nuclear
Collapse of World's Fisheries
Computer/Chip/Operating System Maker Blackmails Country or World
End of Intergenerational Solidarity
Gulf or Jet Stream Shifts Location Permanently
International Financial Collapse
Large-scale lengthy disruption of national electrical supply
Major Break in Alaskan pipeline - Significant ecological damage
Major Chaos in Africa
Nuclear Terrorist Attack on United States or Europe
Rise of an American Dictator
Social breakdown in US or Europe
Stock market crash
Human Cloning Perfected, Human Genetic Engineering Arrives
Accidental creation of lethal organism during research
Anti-tech backlash destroys systems chaos and starvation
Deliberate biotech self-destruct by malicious biotech researcher
Major genetic engineering accident
Terrorism rises beyond capability of government systems
Transgenic accident
Encryption Invalidated
Hackers Blackmail Federal Reserve
China launches cyberwar against Taiwan
Virus outbreak kills 100 million people worldwide
Internet collapse due to security concerns undermining trust
Strike on urban area by 500m asteroid (below current detection threshold)
Biotech terrorist attack goes wrong 2010
Evolved crime destroys human systems 2010
Global civil war between cybernations 2010
Hackers wipe out networks, causing chaos and mass starvation 2010
The hostile arrival of ETs detecting our transmissions 2010
Viruses become immune to all known treatments 2010
End of the Nation State 2010
Foetal Sex Selection Becomes the Norm 2010
(b) The following list is taken from British Telecom's “Technology Timeline”:
Gulf Stream ceases 2015
Computers and robots become superior to humans 2015
Self-aware machine intelligence 2015
Third world exodus destabilises global system 2015
Computers/Robots think like humans 2015
Collapse of the sperm count 2020
Global epidemic with high speed travel and high population density 2020
Global famine caused by manmade environmental change 2020
Hybrid nanotech-organic creatures 2020
International social collapse - widespread civil conflict 2020
Major information systems disruption 2020
Major technology or science research accident 2020
Rise of a global machine dictator 2020
Total social breakdown in US or Europe 2020
Fuel cells replace internal combustion engines 2020
Life Expectancy Approaches 100 2020
Megacities cause global epidemic 2025
Nanotech development by individuals 2025
Nanotechnology accident 2025
Networks become conscious and won't co-operate 2025
Second World Nation Demonstrates Development of Nanotech Weapons 2025
Elimination by smart machines - terminator 2030
Nanotechnology war 2030
Humans access net directly, become an integral part of global information system. 2030
No-Carbon Economy Worldwide 2030
Religious environmentalism destroys environment 2030
use of asteroid as weapon of mass destruction 2030
Methane hydrate nodules evaporate causing runaway global warming 2040
Creation of Star Trek's Borg 2040
Global electromagnetic communications disrupted for foreseeable future 2040
Political correctness creates new dark age 2050
Whole generation unable to effectively read, write, think, and work 2050
Human genetic engineering creates hostile super-race 2070
Humans assimilated into net 2075
Invention of elimination phaser 2075
Time travel invented 2075
Immortality chip - people move into cyberspace 2075
Faster than light travel 2100
