Q. Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years?
The major trend in the next 20 years will be global warming, its consequences for ecosystems, economies and societies, as well as the reactions of societies and countries to mitigate it or to deal with its effects.
Wild cards with major consequences could be the very rapid acceleration of global warming; the breakdown of China between runaway Xinjiang and Tibet; massive social unrest; famines and lack of water; environmental disasters; the paralysis of the EU, or even worse its disintegration as a consequence of an economic crisis and the unsustainable level of debt of some countries.
Q. Can you envision major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years and that are particularly relevant to research in the EU and/or may dramatically affect the ERA vision?
A. The paralysis of the EU, or even worse its breaking-down, would have major consequences for the ERA. Otherwise I think that European research and European research policy are doing relatively well, despite all their shortcomings. But they may be threatened by things like a growing disaffection of young people for research, science and technology; restraints on the freedom to move between countries; or strict immigration policies.
Q. What will be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how it should be addressed by future research? In which fields?
A. Rapid acceleration of global warming, which could be amplified by the melting of the ice sheet and/or the unfreezing of the permafrost, would be disastrous with major ecological and social disasters (e.g., famines, massive migration, breakdown of the social fabric in countries where immigrants are flowing). A lot of research on the dynamics of the atmosphere and seas, on the behaviour of polar ices, on the permafrost, on monitoring capabilities is needed.
The consequences of a breakdown of China are difficult to foresee but would certainly be major for the global economy, for the US, and for the rest of the world. More research and exchanges are needed to understand what is going on in China, as well as in other parts of the world, like the Moslem countries. If the EU were to break down, the consequences would be disastrous.
Q. What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realization) of the wild cards that you mentioned?
A. A weak signal of the coming paralysis of the EU, or even worse its breakdown, would be the growing reluctance of the economically-virtuous countries (e.g., Germany) to fund the growing level of debt of less-virtuous countries and to engage into further and deeper European cooperation.
Q. Can you identify any causal relationships between the Wild Cards or Weak Signals you mentioned?
A. Global warming, the penury of resources, the economical crisis and a potential breakdown of the EU are all related to a collapse of an unsustainable economical model and society based on exponential growth.
Q. Looking ahead to the future of European research – which of the Wild Cards or Weak Signals that you mentioned should be given top priority in EU research?
A. Global warming, measuring it, preventing it and mitigating it should be given top priority.
Q. What are the most pressing emerging issues in the EU that are insufficiently addressed by current research?
A. Research on energy is weak: it does not take all the supply chain into account. For instance, the European Commission has intensively promoted the development of agro-fuels only to find out that it increased the shortage of cereals and therefore the lack of food worldwide.
Q. Are there interesting lessons from previous foresight studies that employed the WI-WE approach?
A. I have read many foresight studies but I am often disappointed. Overall I think that the Millennium Project in the "State of the Future" (http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/sof2009.html) is doing the best job in providing a complete overview, even if I find it often overly optimistic in its belief that humanity can react quickly and efficiently.
Q. What are the best methods to identify Wild Cards and Weak Signals?
A. Shaping Tomorrow is doing the best job (http://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com/). I believe that the future of Foresight and Future Studies is in well-organised and moderated networks, not in individual undertakings.
