Neil Mundy is a Chartered Public Finance Accountant with twenty five years' experience in economic regeneration, is a regular collaborator with Fraser Associates and also has links with St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI). Neil has particular interests in science and technology within regional economic development with particular interest in Healthcare and Life Sciences, Emerging Technologies, Process Industries and Renewables. He was Director of Integration, and Director of Finance and Corporate Services, at ONE NorthEast Regional Development Agency during the period 1999 to 2004 and had responsibility for the development and implementation of the Strategy for Success, the North East's science and technology strategy. He was closely involved in the recruitment of the original Science and Industry Council in the North East and works with the current (SIC). He was instrumental in the business planning in the development of for the Plastic Electronics Technology Centre (PETEC) and the Design Centre for the North (DCN).  In the context of Access to Finance he was instrumental in securing the funding and Fund Management for North East Finance, North East Investment Funds and the Regional Venture Capital Fund and has recently worked with the NE Finance team in developing the successful JEREMIE programme for £125m of additional loan and Equity Funding.  Recently he took a leading role in the creation of the Health Innovation and Education Cluster for the North East (HIEC). Neil has had responsibility for the appraisal and establishment of numerous technology infrastructures projects some in emerging technologies and has a high degree of familiarity with the content and challenges in their business planning.

Summary
This interview deals with a number of major wild cards that could have a dramatic impact on Europe and indeed globally. Weak signals are discussed and the relationship between the wild cards and weak signals identified leading to a number of priorities for European research being defined.

Can you envisage any major wild cards (positive or negative) that may occur in the next 20 years?

NM: There are a number of Wild Cards that come to mind:

• Government cut backs driving innovation but possibly affecting social cohesion, healthcare, education and public order.
• Major lack of sustainability in energy sources and irreparable damage to wildlife habitats, shrinkage in polar caps, sea level rises.
• Significant Demographic change , people living longer , change affecting demand on healthcare - Ageing population, more home based personalised care, increased levels of Dementia, dramatic resource implications of treating co morbidity. High human and financial cost of treating increased falls.
• Population increase and migration to cities and effect on food production and distribution.
• Water shortages and flooding as well as temperature rises and droughts due to climate change affecting population movement in Europe and elsewhere. Areas for wine growing and other crops beginning to move to other countries such as UK.
• Further catastrophic events like Oil spills, disruption of the Internet, major earthquake, tsunami, nuclear events, forest fires, pandemics. Globally transmitted diseases of plants, trees and wildlife.

What would be the dramatic impact of the wild cards you mentioned, and how should it be addressed by future research? In which field?

NM: If the wild cards were to occur there would many significant impacts.

• Government cut backs – This could stimulate innovation and new social capital and community based business but in certain countries worst affected, cuts will undermine social cohesion, healthcare, education and public order. Change needs to be managed more effectively to support this change financially and socially. It is important to properly organise and support innovation involving industry through open innovation.
• Lack of sustainability in energy sources - Climate change particularly linked to man-made causes and increased CO2 will involve more risky exploration for fossil fuels and irreparable damage to wildlife habitats, shrinkage in polar caps, sea level rises. This could be addressed by the provision of a pan European Government incentive, and further support and encouragement to make changes through Carbon duties fixed at an appropriate level.
• Significant demographic change – If demographic change created overwhelming demand on healthcare through an ageing population, more home based personalised care, higher hospital admissions, increased levels of Dementia, and dramatic resource implications of treating morbidity. It would certainly help if Europe concentrated on developing methods of prevention, education on diet and exercise to encourage social responsibility.
• Population increase - Population increase and migration to cities and effect on food production and distribution. This could be addressed by looking at the over reliance on a few outlets and resilience plans could be devised.
• Water shortages and flooding - Water shortages and flooding as well as temperature rises and droughts due to climate change would affect population movement in Europe and elsewhere. Areas for wine growing and other crops may begin to move to other countries such as UK. It would be useful to encourage a pan European strategy on sustainability and business continuity. Other ways to address this include: The development of a range of flood attenuation measures; Making full use of solar energy or hydro power or developing new plant and crop strains to survive and flourish in more hostile climates.
• Catastrophic events – This could include events like Oil spills, major earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, nuclear events, forest fires or pandemics. These would have differing effects from serious flooding of coastal cities and seaboards due to earthquakes triggering tsunamis, maybe the grounding of aircraft due to volcanoes, and further marine and other wildlife may be destroyed by environmental disasters. Improved forecasting would help with this as well as developing advanced technologies to analyse data. Further developments could be made around industrial biotechnology solutions for waste and toxic material elimination.

What are the weak signals that (if detected) could hint at a growing likelihood (or imminent realisation) of the wild cards mentioned?

NM: There are a number of weak signals and trends that are interesting and possibly indicate the emergence of a Wild Card, such as:

• There is feedback from Agencies, Cabinet, population and business that the changes are unstructured and not properly planned. The recent lorry drivers strike in Greece wreaked havoc – stranding tourists, destroying lucrative fruit exports and drying up fuel supplies.
• The emerging evidence of over reliance on deep sea exploration for Oil and Gas from Russia, and now there is more interest in waste to energy plants despite environmental lobby.
• There has been significant damage to insect habitats dramatically reducing the numbers of butterflies and bees. In the UK, there has also been major disease affecting Oak Trees.
• The uptake of electric vehicles has been surprisingly quick.
• Reduced Arctic Shelf and polar ice with increasing sea levels.
• Continuous improvement in life expectancy, increase in dementia, improved tissue engineering, effects of improved management of co morbidity in older age, now around 70% of hospital beds occupied by people aged over 65. Emerging effects of increased use of statins reduced smoking related deaths. There are also higher levels of Hospital admissions.
• Early response to the effects of Climate change in the North West of England work being done on a Water Grid.
• French wine growers are buying land for vineyards in Kent.
• The Environment Agency has taken measures to tackle reduced fish stocks.
• There have been objections from Scotland to current BP deep sea oil exploration plans.

Are there any relationships evident between the wild cards and weak signals you mentioned?

NM: Significant Demographic change is affecting healthcare - under ERA-AGE Ageing population, more home based personalised care, increased levels of Dementia, dramatic resource implications of co morbidity linked to continuous improvement in life expectancy, tissue engineering, effects of improved management of co morbidity in older age, now around 70% of hospital beds occupied by people aged over 65. Emerging effects of increased use of statins reduced smoking related deaths and relationship between obesity and increase type 2, diabetes.

Government cut backs in Europe are driving innovation but possibly affecting social cohesion, healthcare and public order. Feedback from Agencies, Cabinets, population and business suggest that the changes are unstructured and not properly planned. This is seen by the effect of lorry drivers strike in Greece.

There are benefits of early cross sector and cross industry collaboration in tackling pan European and global challenges. Sharing of intelligence and knowledge is key.

There is a link between Climate change, damaged habitats for fish, animals and insects and industrial biotechnology.

Water shortages and flooding, as well as temperature rises and droughts, due to climate change are affecting population movement in Europe and elsewhere. For example, areas for wine growing and other crop development are beginning to move to other countries such as UK. A pan European strategy on sustainability and business continuity should be encouraged, and a range of flood attenuation measures should be developed. Europe should make full use of increased solar energy or hydro power.

Looking ahead to the future of European research – which of the WI-WE that you mentioned should be given top priority?

NM: Europe needs to focus its research priorities across a number of sectors. Specific areas of research that should be given priority include:

1. Healthcare- under ERA-AGE Treatment of dementia in the elderly, skin cancer (melanoma), prostate cancer telemedicine to support home based care, longer-term research on the effects of statins.

2. Industrial Biotechnology and Agriculture complementing ERA-Net BioDivERsA – to deal with oil and chemical spills, support for agriculture and fishing e.g. what if bees and other pollinators disappear? Safe improved yields in fish stocks and crops. Develop crops more resilient to changes in temperature. Improve knowledge and methods of Infection control.

3. Greater emphasis on nanotechnology, very low cost thin film technologies e.g. in solar energy and medical nanotechnology e.g. targeted drug delivery, cancer treatment. Lighter and stronger materials for cars and planes.

4. Improved development of sensor technology to apply to mobile phones and devices to assist in telemedicine under ERA-AGE and communications generally.

5. Expand research linked to Renewable energy, wave and tidal power, hydrogen, storage of energy from Solar. There are doubts over the continuity of the global supply of Biomass and effects on forests.

6. Greater emphasis on battery and fuel cell development, smaller, cooler and better life.

7. Greater use of mobile phone applications in, communications and health and other education.

8. More independent research into the longer term effects of use of mobile phones.

9. Greater emphasis on interdisciplinary R&D and involving end users in ‘Design Thinking`.

Do you prefer other definitions of wild cards and weak signals?

NM: Perhaps ‘early signs’ or ‘early symptoms’ may be clearer than `weak signals`.