Eleonara is Emeritus of Futures Studies and Human Ecology, Faculty of Social Sciences. She has been a futurist since the beginning of the 1970s. She came to futures studies as a sociologist working on social change and came upon futures thinkers by chance. Eleonara was invited to the first futures conference. She was working in an institute on social change and was able to create a group on futures studies. For 30 years She has been teaching a course of futures studies from a social point of view at the Gregorian University in Rome, and writing books, some of which are still useful for beginners. Eleonara has travelled a lot, teaching courses and facilitating conferences. She was one of the few women working in the field and loved it.

 What is the most interesting research project or publication that you are currently working on?
 
I have been working on the philosophical and ethical background of futures studies over the last 20 years. The consequences of foresight are very great. I have worked on many education journals about futures.
 
 Can you envisage any major wild cards, positive or negative that may occur in the next 20 years?
 
Two great weak signals are immigration, and the decreasing interests of some European countries in education and information, interdisciplinary education especially – at all levels of education, but especially at university level. I am speaking about Italy especially, but also Greece and probably Spain very soon. Some negative wild cards deriving from these two big trends are not being looked at. The increase in immigration is certainly not a weak signal, people are aware of it. But there is not enough awareness in terms of decision making and its impact, especially for the long term. At this point it becomes a wild card that we don’t understand. Groups of immigrants can be very strong pushers of decision making, whether at the political or economic level. At the economic level, decision making institutionally is much more prepared, but at the political level it is not, except in Germany or France, which are better equipped, and maybe the UK. They are not aware that this, except for a few signals, may have a very strong impact on governments. The second consequence is that these people are the most affected by the weak wild card of insufficient funding for education in general, and for interdisciplinary education, especially going into university level. That means all the European efforts are leaving out a large part of what will be the future generation. If you look at the future generation and immigrants there is a danger of not being aware of social actors. Finally, immigration can also bring religious contrasts. These may become very dangerous and strong. You can imagine the entrance of the Islamic community in Spain or Italy; in France it is already starting to become dramatic and is not such a weak signal. In the South of Italy, which has a very low population growth, an increase in population aged over 75 and a lack of adults between 25-45, this lack is filled by migrants, usually uneducated. This will have a political and religious impact, and will have a negative impact from the education point of view. Also the possibility of the breaking down of Europe and the contrasts in the long term of the Eastern European countries which are in economic crisis, e.g. Romania, Bulgaria and the ones that want to join, e.g. Serbia. A wild card may be coming from immigration and from this side of Europe.
 
What will be the most dramatic impact of these wild cards and how do you think it should be addressed by future research or policy?
 
Futures research does address it. The point is that futures research is very weak at the government level, especially in Southern Europe. Italy cannot think a year ahead at the political decision-making level, though at the economic level it is happening. Some of the great enterprises are seeing it clearly and getting out of Italy; small and middle-sized enterprises are doing things on their own because they do understand futures research. The lack of looking ahead is tremendously serious. It is this way in Italy, but will become so in Spain, with a total lack of futures research. There are only two or three futures researchers in Italy and an international group. Some of my PhD students and I have approached the government about this, and even the best governments possible in the recent past. That is why futures research is needed on this migration issue. In the 1970s, for example, migration was a great trend, not a wild card but a not-so-weak signal. A minister of science in Italy asked me what the greatest problem in the year 2000 would be. I told him that population growth was already 1.5, so Italy would have a lot of elderly citizens, mainly women, who would have to be cared for, and he laughed at me. From what I have seen, Spain will have this problem; a lot of countries are much more aware. I am talking of decision makers at the political level. This will affect research and education, which is the first thing that is being cut and will affect the next generation. This is why good students emigrate to France or to the USA, etc. This is going to be very serious and will divide Italy and Europe. This might lead to the breaking of the European Union, as many countries do not feel part of the European Union because they keep taking decisions at the territorial and national level, except when the crisis comes. This is very dangerous.
 
 Can you identify any causal relationships between the weak signals and wild cards you have mentioned?
 
You mean at the educational and research and immigration level? Yes of course there is. Italian higher education and universities are well below the European standard, although we do have some excellent universities. I will give you a personal example. My son is the youngest Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies because he studied in China for eight years and he is now an international figure. He came back to Italy to try and work on this, and to say ‘you can do it’. There are some great universities in architecture, but they are working in isolation and are being paralysed. This is what happened in Greece and will happen in Spain, which has excellent universities. Many of our students go there. So there is the possibility of a breakdown. The hope is that the younger generation, which is much more aware of this, will fight it and try and go to England, France, Germany, etc. to study. So there might be this exchange, which is why we must work even more on it. The ERA vision must be carried out with European funding.
 
 What issues do you think should be given top priority (of the ones you have mentioned) in European research? What is the most urgent one in your view?  The immigration issue is very serious. I have been working on it for many years and it has become even more important. I have found scenario building an excellent method for working on this. The way that PREST has been using this method with the participation of decision makers at different levels in futures is very important. When decision makers are made aware, they understand it. It is extremely important to carry out futures research on immigration, and also on the immigration of researchers in Europe. I think this is crucial. Scenario building also has to be increasingly defined.
 
 Do you use the concepts and definitions of wild cards and weak signals in your work?
 
Yes. I have used seeds of change in the past, but I think weak signals are very good as indicators of something more probable or even inevitable. A wild card is more difficult to detect. For me this always emerges when something happens in an element of society. The wildest card I can think of in Europe is the breakdown of the European Union and the contrast between the eastern European countries and those that were traditionally western European countries.
 
 Have you used the wild cards and weak signals approach in your research and if so are there any interesting lessons you could tell us about? 
 
 The whole aim of developing research at the European level is to train the younger generation. How to capture wild cards has to be taught, not only in the futures/foresight field, as related to the decision makers, and not only at the economic level, but especially at the political level. If this kind of research had been well known in Greece I think much damage could have been avoided. The whole of Europe has more conservative governments, which have a history of not capturing what is going on in society. Clearly, social research, futures research is what is needed. That is what I have been trying to teach to different students from around the world. Their capacity to understand and capture wild cards in their own countries has been excellent. The younger generation of foresight experts is much better than my generation at capturing weak signals and wild cards. They are already anticipators and I think I was considered that too. At the political level in Italy, with regards to studying the future I have failed. I tried, but there was always refusal. Hungary is very good, but Romania is disastrous from my point of view. So this is very difficult for Europe. R&D and the vision of the ERA are extremely important, and this is not happening in some countries.
 
 What in your view are the best methods to identify weak signals and wild cards?
 
 Working in a group and building scenarios together between futurists and decision makers. We can help to bring out the wild cards with our experience. In foresight, the best way is to have a continuous dialogue with the decision makers and help them dig out the wild cards.